Bricks n’ Dunks: Week 3 – Nuggets worries, Cavs guarantees
Why Denver might have problems and Cleveland might not
Bricks n’ Dunks is a regular column from The Hoops Nerd Huw Hopkins for the 2022-23 men’s NBA season, covering the good (Dunks) and the bad (Bricks)
Brick: Nuggets depth
When Jamal Murray tore his ACL in 2021, it didn’t just interrupt the Denver Nuggets’ championship hopes that season. The seriousness of the injury meant the point guard would be off the shelf for at least a year, which also put a dent in the aspirations for a championship run in the 2021-22 season.
It’s not like Nikola Jokić didn’t do everything in his power to keep them on track to win the West – he won two MVPs and dragged them to the playoffs twice – but with Michael Porter Jr also struggling with back issues, the team traded away depth for more help-now types of talent. The likes of Will Barton and Monte Morris are now being useful in Washington, and while Kentavious Caldwell Pope has brought a defensive toughness to the Nuggets starting line-up, he is not the offensive spark their trade counterparts are being with the Wizards.
Understandably, Denver gave up on Bol Bol, as they were struggling to get him minutes behind the All-Star big man. But he is now tearing it up with the Orlando Magic, while Jokić could probably use a night off every once in a while. Instead he has to play a team-leading 32 minutes per game for coach Michael Malone to avoid putting DeAndre Jordan in too much – even Jeff Green is getting minutes at center.
Murray is looking good on offense, but he is getting beaten easily on the defensive end. With him leading non-Jokić minutes, you’ll want to surround him with shooting to make the most of a slashing ability, but the team doesn’t have too many that can help that regard. He won’t play often with Bones Hyland as he needs the ball in his hands, Christian Braun is too small to get heavy minutes alongside Murray, and Aaron Gordon certainly can’t be relied on from the perimeter, and that’s a lot for KCP and Bruce Brown to do by themselves – two guys who can’t be considered volume scorers.
Porter Jr is a good three-point option, but he is looking hesitant elsewhere. You only have to look to a battle for the ball in the second quarter of their game against Oklahoma City Thunder this week to see he’s not comfortable diving on the floor in tense situations.
That’s fine – generally he has been crushing it this season with 18 points and 7 rebounds per game, with a plus-minus per 100 possessions of +23 – but 58% of his scoring has come from beyond 20ft away from the basket. And if a 6’10 guy with a litany of back pain can’t be aggressive in a way that gets more than two free throws per game, he’s going to struggle with the rigors of playoff basketball.
After 10 games, the Nuggets went 7-3, so it’s looking good for the most part but they went -15.8 without Jokić on the floor. There is a way to avoid this, but playing The Joker 48 minutes per game is not funny to think about. Maybe Murray will get better and Porter Jr will get less hesitant, but beyond them, the team needs some of the depth they gave up to keep the ship afloat when injuries were rife.
Dunk: Mobley passing maturity
The Cleveland Cavaliers entered the season with the optimism of Joe Biden looking at the midterm election results. He breathed a sigh of relief at what was essentially not a win, but the implications of it being not a loss might have a bigger impact. The Cavs didn’t win a championship when they traded for Donovan Mitchell in the off-season, but they retained the elements required to win one in the future.
Most notably, we’re talking about Evan Mobley. As a rookie, this dude was in the Defensive Player of the Year conversations. He has a 7’4 wingspan that makes it difficult for any attacking player to get a shot off, wherever they are on the floor.
The Kevin Garnett comparisons were immediate, but Mobley started in his first season – not necessarily Garnett’s fault, he could have started but he was the first high school-NBA player in 20 years – so he had more responsibility early in his first season.
It’s not like his numbers are much better this season. Mobley is averaging 15 points per game, and has slightly fewer rebounds to his name so far as a sophomore, but he’s playing with Mitchell this year – who is taking nearly 10 shots more and double the amount of rebounds than Collin Sexton did last year before they were traded for each other. Mitchell’s 31 points per game is bound to dampen Mobley’s scoring load, but that doesn’t mean the big man isn’t improving.
Check out this pass from a game against the Lakers last week. The tough entry pass came from Mitchell, and Mobley was defended hard by Troy Brown, immediately mobbed by Anthony Davis as a double, with Kendrick Nunn floating in the lane. Mobley didn’t panic. He quickly recognised the pressure and kicked the pass out quickly to a semi-open Mitchell – and as he’s shown all season, a semi-open Mitchell is basically a guaranteed bucket this year.
This confidence in his passing has taken a step up, so even though he might not have progressed as a scorer or a rebounder, his defense is still unmatched by 96% of the league, and his passing is improving.
If he continues this development, I personally guarantee the Cleveland Cavaliers will win a championship before the LeBron James wins one.